US decline could moderate China's growth in 2008(1) - 中国金融网
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US decline could moderate China's growth in 2008(1)
2008年1月10日 9点27分   来源:Xinhua 发表评论查看评论
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【本文摘要】 China might see a "significant dent" in its economic growth rate, if the US economy slides into a recession, said the United Nations in a report released on Wednesday.

UNITED NATIONS -- China might see a "significant dent" in its economic growth rate, if the US economy slides into a recession, said the United Nations in a report released on Wednesday.

China is expected to grow at a robust pace of 10 percent in 2008, moderating from the 11.4 percent growth estimated for 2007, said the report entitled World Economic Situation and Prospects 2008.

The annual report also considered a more pessimistic scenario under which housing prices in the United States make a more significant dive and push the US economy into a recession in 2008. Should this happen, economic growth in China would drop below 8 percent in 2008.

In the baseline forecast, the UN's prospects for the Chinese economy in 2008 remain positive overall. Fixed investment continues to be a key growth driver. Private consumption, which was relatively weak in the past compared with other components of GDP, will strengthen due to a strong growth in wages and the positive wealth effects from the significant rise in stock prices over the past two years.

The UN report said the weight of the Chinese economy in the world has been steadily increasing. China contributed about 17 percent to global growth in 2007, about the same as the United States.

China's trade with the rest of the world has been growing three times as fast as the world average since its accession to the WTO in 2001. If it keeps up the momentum, China will become the largest exporting economy in 2009.

China's rapid industrialization has generated strong spill-over effects on the economic development of other developing countries, contributing directly to their exceptionally strong growth performance in recent years.

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